Opening Remarks by the Chairperson at the 2nd Annual African Peace and Security Dialogue

I am Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi, the Chair of the Thabo Mbeki Foundation’s Board of Trustees, and I hereby welcome you to this 2nd Annual African Peace and Security Dialogue.

I recognise and welcome the presence of H.E. Thabo Mbeki Patron of the Thabo Mbeki Foundation and former President of the Republic of South Africa, H.E. Joaquim Chissano, former President of Mocambique, HE Prithvirajsing Roopun, former President of Mauritius, Hon. Bantu Holomisa, Deputy Minister of Defence and Military Veterans Republic of South Africa.

Excellencies, sitting and retired Ambassadors.

And, all participants

This year’s dialogue aims to identify pathways to peace for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and to prevent and counter the spread of violent extremism in Mozambique and elsewhere in the Southern African region.

Allow me to make some comments in the interest of defining this event as a strategic intervention. Let me be clear: we are not convening as merely a talk shop, nor do we offer the African Peace and Security Dialogue as a negotiation forum. And despite many experts in the room, we do not aspire to be an academic conference.

Framing Statement: Diplomacy as Africa’s Greatest Strategic Asset

We convene the African Peace and Security Dialogue at a critical historical juncture – one marked by the fracturing of global consensus, the paralysis of multilateral institutions, the escalation of African conflicts, and the erosion of democratic legitimacy across our Continent.

Yet, in the face of this disruption, one instrument endures as both compass and catalyst – diplomacy.

Diplomacy transcends eloquence. It is the discipline of transforming language into architecture – the deliberate construction of shared meaning, commitment, and peace.

In Africa, where conflict is often a consequence of silence, ambiguity, or historical exclusion, diplomacy must be recast not as ornament, but as praxis.

The 2nd African Peace and Security Dialogue is not just a conference. It is a strategic convening; a forum of pan-African agency, shaped by a generation that refuses to inherit the burden of unresolved violence, silenced communities, and broken institutions.

Strategic Vision: What the African Peace And Security Dialogue is and Aspires to Be

The African Peace and Security is intended to be a high-level diplomatic platform rooted in Pan-African values and driven by a pragmatic search for African-led solutions to peace and security challenges. Convened under the auspices of the Thabo Mbeki Foundation, the Dialogue seeks to:

• Reposition Africa not as a site of intervention by others, but as a diplomatic actor in helping to shape global and continental order.

• Move beyond the rhetoric of ‘Silencing the Guns’, in Africa, to building the conditions for sustained peace, democratic renewal, and inclusive governance.

• Institutionalise diplomacy as praxis, particularly in fragile, post-coup,
• and transitional contexts.

Geopolitical Backdrop: Three Levels of Strategic Disruption

Our focus on Africa and our efforts to identify pathways to peace take place against a broader global context. Taken together, we must be aware of three trends impacting our strategic vision:

1. Global Governance Disorder: Africa as Spectator or Architect?
2. Continental Unravelling: Peace, Governance, and Coup Normalisation.
3. Regional Hotspots: Case Studies in Fragility and Resistance

Let me say a few words about these three trends before I conclude with our tasks at hand.

1. The fracturing of global governance

In essence, global governance is meant to be the framework for managing the complex interdependencies of the modern world, striving to find collective solutions to global problems while navigating diverse interests and power structures. However, driven by the West under the leadership of the USA, it is called incorrectly the ‘rules-based international order.’

However, there are problems with the contemporary global governance system. Instead of shared prosperity and security, humankind experiences growing inequality, environmental degradation, and technology-driven consolidation of wealth and power, leading to a rise in populist nationalism, protectionism, and xenophobia worldwide. This is a counter-reaction to the failures of globalism, which fuels a self-reinforcing cycle of instability and division both at home and abroad. Problems manifest in the arenas of inequality, conflict, and environmental degradation. The current American administration’s calculated disruption of global governance, including attempts to neutralise BRICS, introduces another complicating factor in the quest for global justice:

Other bodies within the system of international relations, such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), are urging the adoption of a new system of international relations based on respect for:

• Multipolarity.
• Multilateralism, based on the UN system; and,
• The UN Charter.

This constitutes a sustained and open challenge to unilateralism and the attempt to achieve and sustain global hegemony. Africa must decide how it intervenes to help shape this new international order.

2. Africa’s challenges with peace, security, and democracy

Four themes demonstrate the failure of Africa’s ambition to silence the guns:

1. The Fractured Social Contract and Absence of the State as Root Cause.
   1. Governance Backsliding – Since 2014, nearly 40% of African countries – home to half the population – have seen declines in good governance; over 60% face setbacks in security and the rule of law, and 50% in rights-based inclusion. (Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2024)
   2. Weakened Social Contract – In many African countries, the State’s failure to meet citizens’ needs – especially amid deep group-based inequalities – has bred mistrust and resentment.
   3. Gaps in State Presence – The “absence of the State” reflects critical deficits in service delivery, state capacity, and legitimacy – not a total lack of government.
   4. A Troubling Cyclical Pattern – Absence of the State fuels resentment of the State, which then provides a fertile ground for the replacement of the State.
2. From Absence to Resentment: Governance Deficits and Collective Grievances
   1. Rising Discontent – Failure to deliver basic services, justice, and inclusion has fuelled widespread public frustration and declining trust in government.
   2. Protest Surge – Between 2013–2023, Africa saw a 746% rise in anti-government protests – the highest global increase, growing at 23.8% annually, over double the global rate.
   3. Livelihood Struggles – Protests often stem from poor services, unemployment, and rising costs – widely linked to corruption and governance failures.
   4. Marginalised Voices – Disillusionment is deepest among women, youth, rural populations, and ethnic minorities, who face systemic exclusion from opportunities and services
3. From Resentment to Fertile Gound for Replacement of the State or Government.
   1. Exploiting State Absence – Non-State Armed groups – include violent extremists and criminal networks- are filling voids left by weak State presence and unmet local needs.
   2. Targeting the Marginalised – Recruitment focuses on the unemployed and excluded, with financial incentives and promises of belonging.
   3. De Facto Governance – In several regions, groups such as Al-Shabaab, Boko Haram, and the Islamic State West Africa Province and the Islamic State Central Africa Province provide services – education, healthcare, justice – where the State has failed, gaining local legitimacy.
   4. Rising Toll – In 2024, Africa suffered the most terrorism-related deaths globally for the 8th year in a row, with 8 of the 10 deadliest attacks worldwide.
4. Actual Replacement: Unconstitutional Changes of Government as Promises of State Renewal.
   1. Unconstitutional Changes of Government are increasingly seen by some as a response to deep governance failures and eroded trust in democracy.
   2. Common Drivers Widespread frustration over corruption, insecurity, and economic exclusion
   3. Declining faith in State institutions
   4. Perceived failure of democracy to deliver on basic needs

3. The situation in Central and Southern Africa.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has been embroiled in a complex, multi-decade conflict, especially in its mineral-rich eastern region, involving numerous armed groups and neighbouring countries. Recent escalations are driven by the Alliance of the Congo River, AFC, with the M23 rebel group as one of its members, which has made significant territorial gains, setting up parallel administrations and controlling natural resource mines. The conflict over the last thirty years, which included the flooding of the region by Genocidaires fleeing from Rwanda, has led to millions of deaths, widespread displacement, a severe humanitarian crisis, and a high risk of mass atrocities.

Violent extremism is a growing concern in Southern Africa, driven by transnational groups like ISIS and Al-Shabaab impacting countries like Mozambique with significant attacks, and by domestic threats in South Africa, including far-right groups and Jihadist movements. Factors such as porous borders, weak institutions, internal conflicts, and the manipulation of online radicalization contribute to the spread of extremist ideologies and recruitment, necessitating resilient, multidisciplinary regional strategies to address the threat effectively.

Diplomacy as Praxis: From Words to Institutional Architecture

As we meet and examine the state of affairs in Southern Africa over the next three days, let us think about moving the narrative from description and victimhood towards practical conflict resolution proposals.

We are fortunate to report progress since the previous Dialogue. The inaugural Dialogue produced a ten-point declaration of commitment. The document, which will be circulated to all participants, contains actionable plans to drive the Dialogue as a process, rather than as an event. The TMF is proud to announce the secondment of Prof. Anthoni van Nieuwkerk by the University of South Africa to the Foundation as Director of Research, whose task it will be to take the implementation of the ten-point plan forward.

As we meet and examine the state of affairs in Southern Africa over the next three days, we intend to move the narrative from description and victimhood towards practical conflict resolution proposals. Through the Directorate of Research, work will take place with the Foundation and likeminded institutions across the continent:

• Establish the African Peace and Security Dialogue Diplomatic Task Teams.
• Convene Closed-Door Roundtables for Diplomats.
• Formulating a 2025 African Peace and Security Dialogue Diplomatic Commitment Charter, building on the ten points of agreement, reached in 2024, the first African Peace And Security Dialogue.
• Disseminate knowledge through an African Peace and Security Dialogue publication as a vehicle reporting on progress by academics and practitioners alike.
• Build an African Peace and Security Dialogue Foresight and Fragility Unit.

In building our capacity, I recommend the following Guiding Questions for the Dialogue:

1. Can Africa build a new diplomatic compact for peace rooted in its own values, and the AU Peace and Security Architecture?
2. What infrastructure does African diplomacy require, taking into account such Continental policies as the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance?
3. What role must the African Peace and Security Dialogue play in reanimating trust in governance bearing in mind the ongoing process of the African Peer Review Mechanism which forms part of the Africa Governance Architecture?

At the start of my opening remarks, I said “we do not aspire to be an academic conference” notwithstanding the presence of many experts in this room. But the dissemination of multi-dimensional knowledges matter to us at the Thabo Mbeki Foundation.

One thing that probably makes the African Peace and Security Dialogue unique as a forum is the depth of experience that our Patron, President Thabo Mbeki, has had in peace making, mediation and diplomatic interventions in wide-ranging conflict situations in the last three decades. We are fortunate that we can continue to generate significant knowledge from that experience as part of the effort to address the peace and security issues that Africa confronts.

Last year, at the first the African Peace and Security Dialogue, Adbul Mohammed spoke to the experience of working with President Mbeki on his mediation in the Sudans, and we presented the study by Alex de Waal and Willow Berridge: ‘Negotiating the Sudans: The African Union High Level Panel 2009-2013’.

Building on this, we have embarked on a book project, which will identify common themes, issues and questions arising from President Mbeki’s experiences of leading a number of conflict mediations in Africa.

Its focus is not on a single intervention but an overview of common issues emerging from these mediations or diplomatic interventions – Cote d’Ivoire, the DRC, Zimbabwe and aspects of the Sudans. It will draw from President’s Mbeki’s reflections in hindsight in relation to these situations and highlight leadership issues that arise, and which must address African agency in responding to today’s conflict situations.

A team of researchers from the African Leadership Centre led by Professor ‘Funmi Olonisakin, in collaboration with the Research Directorate of the TMF will work on this book project, which we plan to present at next year’s the African Peace And Security Dialogue.

Diplomacy Is Destiny

The 2nd African Peace and Security Dialogue is a call to diplomatic imagination. It does not seek to describe the world as it is, but to shape the world as it must become. In an age of disinformation, fragmentation, and militarised politics, diplomacy is not the language of the weak – it is the strategy of the wise.

Colleagues, words do not merely describe reality – they shape it. The African Peace and Security Dialogue affirms that diplomacy is the single most powerful nonviolent technology available to Africa in its pursuit of peace, dignity, and sovereignty.

I wish you fruitful deliberations and hopefully a positive statement of achievement by the end of the Dialogue.

Thank you for your attention!